Considering today's headlines, the world is facing an unprecedented plethora of global crises. Yet, modern history offers examples of similarly turbulent times.
1968 was characterized by extreme political polarization and violence. 1979 is another case in point.
The Iranian Revolution in February sent crude oil prices soar, echoing the 1974 oil crisis. Inflation rates reached double-digit territory in a nanosecond in the US and Europe, leading to fears of a deep recession. The post-World War II boom era, which died in the mid-70s, was now buried. To add insult to injury, the marginal personal income tax rate was 70% in the US and 83% in the UK. Gloom, meet Doom.
There is more. In March, a partial nuclear meltdown occurred at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island plant. The accident triggered a sharp rise in anti-nuclear safety concerns globally.
Widespread terrorism in Western Europe, symbolized by figures like Carlos the Jackal, a self-described ‘professional revolutionary,’ added to a sense of vulnerability. The Red Brigades and Red Army Faction carried out frequent assassinations, kidnappings, and bombings.
The collapse of the Iran Republic, a fast-rising economic power at the time, was highly disruptive to the West. That same year, Saddam Hussein, allied with Russia, rose to power as Iraq’s President. Finally, on Christmas Eve, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, causing a reversal of the ‘détente policy.’ These ominous events were unsettling enough through the binary, almost simplistic prism of the Cold War. It took decades to realize that they concealed a more complex movement: the rise of political Islam.
Meanwhile, China started military operations against Vietnam, causing tension with Japan. Nearby, the President of the Republic of Korea was assassinated. Further away, a revolution took place in Nicaragua.
Three movies released in 1979 capture the mood of the time: ’Alien,’ ‘Mad Max,’ and ‘Apocalypse Now.’ ‘79 also inspired the dark song ‘London Calling’ by the Clash: ‘Engines stop running, the wheat is growin' thin/A nuclear error, but I have no fear/'cause London is drowning, and I, I live by the river.’ There is no need for a Freudian analysis to suggest that the world was dealing with profound issues.
I was too young to understand it all. But I do recall watching the daily TV news. Bloodshed in European capitals, an energy crisis, labor strikes, Iran, Afghanistan… and, as always, the Middle East.
However, the events of 2024 are given more weight due to the recency bias. The progress achieved over decades and reported in ’The Negativity Trap’ (2019) in areas such as child mortality, hunger, plane crashes, female education, access to water, and electricity coverage loses relevance in the immediacy of the present. None of it nor 1979 matters to those experiencing pain, anxiety, and anger today, particularly in conflict areas.
Still, historically, the world has always been on a tightrope. It has not prevented it from moving forward. The perceived rise or decline of uncertainty is an illusion. When making decisions, only the strength of conviction, however derived, truly matters.
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